
2010 is here, and so are TechLahore's predictions for the new year
I recently evaluated the predictions from last year. In a nutshell, I was about 80% correct. 2009 has certainly been filled with unique challenges, both at a global and national level. We’re all hopeful the future holds better things, and on that subject, I’ll share with you what I think will go down in 2010. Once again, while I’ve been lucky enough to be fairly accurate over the course of 2008 and 2009, it doesn’t mean the trend will continue in 2010. I won’t try and make safe predictions just so that they come true, but rather focus on things that I beleive all of us are thinking about… even though predicting their course might be fraught with risk.
So here goes:
Political predictions
I don’t see Asif Zardari making it through 2010. I think he will be deposed as President.
Though many political pundits talk about it, I don’t believe there will be mid-term elections this year. Whatever changes occur will be with individual and will not displace the entire post-2008 election scenario.
Gen. Kiyani is scheduled to retire close to the end of the year, but I believe he will receive a rare 1 year extension of service. However it happens, I don’t believe we will see him retiring this year.
The surge in Afghanistan will not work. If not by the end of 2010 then in 2011 the US will have to sit and talk to elements of the Taliban. The commitment of these forces will prove politically costly for President Obama.
Security and the situation in northwest Pakistan
As I had mentioned last year, the Army certainly had an operation up their sleeve. What happened in Swat and South Waziristan was the result of meticulous planning that had occured for months prior to the execution of either campaign. I believe these campaigns will begin to bear fruit in 2010 in the form of a reduction in security incidents in Pakistan. While there will be a definite tapering off in 2010, the nihilists will continue to make their presence felt now and then. Unfortunately this is a process which will take a little bit of time to completely unfold. But 2010 will inshaAllah be more secure than 2009 and quite measurably so.
The military will continue significant presence in Swat, Waziristan and will expand into other tribal agencies, expanding the writ of the government in an area that was always free of federal or provincial law enforcement since 1947. The action being conducted in these areas is certainly against the foreign nihilists who have taken refuge there and those who would seek to support them, but it also marks an expansion of writ into areas where it never existed previously (by design and by a 1947 era agreement which has clearly outlived its relevance).
Pakistan will continue to implement its strategic weapons programs and reap the fruits of investment in tactical weapons development. In addition to the first JF-17 squadron being weaponized and fully operationalized, we will see the arrival of F-16 Block 52 (Yes, there will be no last minute ‘hitches’), additional Saab Eireye AWACS aircraft, significant progress on the FC-20 fighter program, new air-to-air weapons such as the AMRAAM, and air to ground munitions and the Sniper targeting pod. In addition, the missile program will continue at full speed and more details will emerge regarding the 7,000km range Taimur ICBM. Pakistan will, however, not make any official announcements concerning this system. The much delayed Pakistan Navy next generation submarine deal will be finalized – there is a German vs. French situation going on at the moment but this will succesfully be navigated and a firm deal will take shape in 2010.
Technology Predictions
There will be a near-breakout level of success with a Pakistani based mobile software company. At least one company will claim 250K users for its mobile products by the end of 2010. It is very likely that two will.
Netsol will see its fortunes improve in 2010 from a share price perspective. Hovering now at around $1, they can expect to be at least 25% better off by the end of the year.
2010 is going to be a really bad year for Palm in terms of adoption of the Pre. I had predicted in 2008 that the Hail Mary piece of technology demo’d at CES fail for Palm. It has almost happened, but not quite completely yet. Palm will be relegated to a fourth tier player at best and 2010 will mark a signifciant reduction in its brand equity and influence.
The Apple Tablet will be released and it will be a major hit. Even though I don’t like Apple, I will buy it
It will be iPhone OS based and will not have the full functionality of a Mac. eReader apps for it will be absolutely killer and very succesful.
Windows Mobile 7 will come out in 2010 but will not be ‘all that’. It will take several updates and major enhancements to improve it. It will not reverse the market share trend away from Microsoft based phones that has taken hold over the last few years. Android will be the biggest gainer on the Smartphone side and will continue to whittle away at the Windows lead. Microsoft will undergo some pain in this area in 2010.
ARM based devices and cheaper laptops will start to chip away at Netbook growth. There will at most 20% growth in the Atom based Netbook segment. A market which went from 0 units in 2007 to clost to 40M units in 2009.
Nokia is not being succesful in its move from basic and feature phones to truly smart phones. Their UI development and OS skills are not in the top 3 at all. I think this will be Nokia’s downfall… as smartphones become less expensive in markets outside the US, fewer people will choose Nokia as it will no longer provide the best experience primarily due to software reasons. From the low end, Samsung and LG feature phones will continue to become better thus providing competition to the traditional Nokia feature phone niche. All in all, 2010 will see other mobile companies grow at the expense of Nokia.
I was wrong on this one last year, and this is almost too easy for 2010, but then again – you never know! The Software Park Tower in Lahore will be completed and will become fully operational in 2010. It is going to be too expensive sq ft cost wise for most companies so move-ins will be slower than expected.
Financial and Economic Predictions
The S&P will show a better than 7% gain in 2010. The Dow and NASDAQ will also come close to 10% gains.
The recession in the US will be over officially – it technically is already – but you’ll hear common people saying it. There will be a net reduction in the unemployment rate in 2010.
The KSE, having recovered more rapidly than expected in 2009, will show more modest gains of in the 10-15% neighbourhood in 2010.
The Pakistani Rs. will continue to trade between 82 and 86 to the USD through the year.